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Introduction

The occupational hazards of round-robin tennis typically lead to at this point of the ATP Finals we’re often left scratching our heads, scrambling about for a mathematical tool and trying to work out the mind-boggling qualification scenarios. Yet today's game between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, mercifully, is easy. It's a direct elimination: the victor earns a semifinal matchup against Alcaraz at this season-ending event; the defeated player heads out.

Zverev is the predicted winner for this: the elite athlete is the player with greater achievements, has claimed the title at this event twice before and leads their head-to-head with six victories against three defeats, winning both their past encounters on an covered hard surface.

Yet … this type of playing field on which Auger-Aliassime has claimed the bulk of his trophies, he is full of confidence after his compelling comeback against Shelton on midweek and he took out the German in the US Open third round in August. Furthermore, the playing speed is higher in Turin than at Flushing Meadows, which works even more in Auger-Aliassime's benefit.

If the German player is reserved, like he was against Sinner, and the Canadian presses the German with his stinging serves and fearless play, there is a strong chance the 25-year-old Canadian – the one-time phenom who was once in line in front of the younger champions to succeed the legendary trio – who secures the questionable privilege of facing the top-ranked player tomorrow.

Play begins: at about 8.30pm local time, 19:30 Greenwich Mean Time.